2020 American Elections and its projected impact world politics and business

Sometimes it can seem like every election cycle is billed as ‘the most important election in our lifetime’ or even ‘the most important ever’. Although Trump’s election in 2016 was certainly unexpected, it is well documented that he comes from the same inner circle as previous President Bill Clinton, who’s wife he unconvincingly beat to the presidency. Hillary Clinton, aside from offering the possibility of being the first female president – a point her campaign heavily focused on – essentially offered a continuation to the hegemonic politics that the US electoral system has consistently offered for decades.

In 2020, the importance of the election is heavily dependent on the outcome of the Democratic primaries. With a significant number of states having now voted to give an indicator of the frontrunners, it appears that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the main contenders to take on Trump.

Biden, who has been gunning at the presidency for decades, is the epitome of an establishment candidate. His policies have consistently been of-their-time, and since he’s been around for so long, he has a history of now-outdated and sometimes racist positions. Not only have his unchallenging positions kept him from making enemies, his recent vice-presidency alongside Obama means he’s held every position but president.

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Sanders on the other hand consistently stuck to his principles over decades and at 78 is still fighting for a cause that is essentially the status-quo in Europe but seems extreme by America’s skewed political landscape. Although he bills himself as a ‘socialist’ the Vermont veteran is more of a social democrat. Although not radical, he does offer a rare restraining of the imperialism and unfettered capitalism that makes America stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of the developed world.

When looking at how the three possibilities of Trump, Biden or Sanders, the most striking outcomes are when metanalytical questions are asked of how  the 2020 American Elections could affect world politics and business.

Trump’s election in the 2020 American Elections  would continue to facilitate the rise of China on the global stage. As he alienates trading partners with his insistence of renegotiations, countries such as India won’t have too many qualms turning to the cheaper products of China. The protectionist policy being chased by the most uneducated and inexperienced President in history is likely to hasten the inevitable rise of China to its historical position as top of the world stage. Behemoths of Chinese industry such as Huawei and Alibaba may soon come to lead the world stage as the strong state that supports them capitalises on the gift provided by Trump.

Biden’s slightly more mainstream approach would probably have the opposite effect on China’s rise, having a delaying effect as he re-normalised relations with trading partners. However, he’d still have a minimal effect on the restraining of US capitalism and so business would be unlikely to swerve off its current path. A global recession is widely regarded as imminent, the White House is unlikely to be able to stop this, although Biden will be regarded by CEO’s as the safest pair of hands. This confidence could play a role in reducing economic contraction if such a crisis were to arise.

A Sanders’ presidency could have as big an effect on long-term geopolitics as Trump. For over a century America has dominated the world stage from a more right-wing position than the rest of its inhabitants. A Sanders presidency would mean a centrist occupies the White House for the first time and may give other countries more room for autonomy without fearing US ‘intervention’ or invasion. A global reduction in conflict would mean the reversal of a long-running trend, and middle-income countries would have more luck at enacting the social democratic systems that work so well in Europe without needing to be paranoid of American erraticism.

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Trump’s domestic policy, like Biden’s, is nothing radical. The Republican’s odd foreign outlook may facilitate long-term change on the world stage that will come back to haunt him and his elite circle, though. If he ends up facing a Sanders-led Democrat party, then the two candidates will offer bigger alternatives than any pairing for at least the last century. If the social democrat wins the Democrat nominee, there would be a genuine argument for this being the most important US election of all time.

2020 American Elections would surely impact world business and politics no matter the winner.

Source: ElectionsinGhana.com